The NCAA is lying to you! Blunt start, I know, but this is something you all really need to hear. When it comes to playing college basketball, the NCAA says you have a 3.5% chance of making it. That number can be terrifying to think about. It’s so low that it can sometimes trick players into thinking that it’s damn near impossible to play college basketball. So a lot of players automatically assume they aren’t good enough and don’t even pursue it. If this is you, or you know someone thinking like this then lock in, this article is for you.
The NCAA says that there are about 540,000 high school basketball players. And out of that 540k only about 19,000 players will make it to play college basketball. This is where the 3.5% comes from. So those numbers would lead one to believe that they’re competing against over 500,000 players for a college roster spot. What if I told you those numbers are skewed?
You see, what the NCAA doesn't take into account is that not every high school player wants to play basketball in college. So I've done is broken down high school basketball into three categories: participants, wanters, and do-ers. Each category represents a certain number of high school basketball players. The question becomes, which category do you fall under…
The Participants
The Participants is exactly that, every player participating in high school basketball— the 540,000. If you participate in high school sports then you know that not everyone on your team wants to play college basketball. Some will play other sports, and some just don’t have the desire to play beyond high school at all. So you’re really not competing with 540k players. Let’s say only about 25% of high school basketball participants want to go on to play college basketball. This would make the original pool of 540,000 shrink to about 135,000 which brings us to the next category.
The Wanters
The Wanters is the group of players that say they want to play college basketball. Their chances of playing is higher than 3.5%. That same 19,000 players who make it is out of 135,000 players now, giving one a 14% chance rather than just a 3.5% chance. Chances still aren’t great, but it is an increase nonetheless. Players can want something until they’re blue in the face though; if they do not actually do what it takes then they will rarely achieve it. So although chances increased, this still isn’t the category you want to fall into.
The Do-ers
The Do-ers are about action, not just words. This category of players actually puts in the work and does what it takes to play college basketball. They get extra work in, study the game, take care of their academics, etc. So let’s say only about half of people who say they want to play college basketball really mean it and do what it takes. That means this category is only about 67,000 players giving one around a 28% chance of making it to college basketball. Although 28 still doesn’t seem high, a jump from 3.5 to 28 is pretty significant. This is the category you want to fall in if playing college basketball is a goal of yours. Do-ers make it!
All of these numbers being used are based on NCAA schools only, too. There are 200+ schools at both NAIA and JUCO levels so one really has an even greater chance of making it to college than just 28%. This information is not trying to suggest that the process to becoming a college basketball is any easier, but it is suggesting that it is not as far fetched as it may seem. If you really want to play basketball in college then you must do what is necessary and put words to action.
A goal without action is never met.
Inspired by Micah Lancaster of I'M POSSIBLE Basketball. Video from Overtime (click on Meechie Johnson 👀)
Recruiting 101: Navigating the Recruiting Process is free game from someone who lived it. It was created to help [parents, players, coaches] increase knowledge about a topic that is oftentimes seen as complicated and overwhelming. I want anyone out there that truly wants to play college basketball to know that it is possible.
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